Silver Surfer

I haven't come across any material about how climate change is or will affect Namibia? Anyone have some interesting info?

Comrade_007

It will, is the short answer. Not being a climate scientist myself, I've come across this from the Namibian Ministry of Enviornment and Tourism. The material does not specificalyl state how climate change will affect our country, but it has some really interesting background information:

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THE NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAM Background The Constitution of Namibia requires the State to actively promote and adopt policies that maintain the ecosystems, ecological processes and biological diversity for the benefit of the present and future populations. The anticipated effects of climate change could have potentially negative impacts on the ability of the state to fulfil its constitutional obligations. The state through it various government agencies and departments and in full partnership with the non-governmental and private sectors have and will continue to develop and adopt pre-emptive, preventative and corrective actions and activities to address environmental and climate change issues and problems. Climate change is considered one of the most serious threats to Namibia’s environment, human health and well-being as well as its economic development. The arid environment, recurrent drought and desertification have contributed to make Namibia one of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change. Considering the natural resource based economy and limited technical and financial resources, climate change could potentially become one of the most significant and costly issues that affect the national development process in Namibia. The economy is very dependent on agricultural production and this is threatened by the negative impacts of climate change. Food security, health and other development goals could be turned up side down. The projected rise in sea levels due to global warming could submerge coastal islands and affect the entire marine industry and the coastal economy. Fishing and tourism are also vulnerable. Recently a cyclone in the Indian Ocean caused severe damage and economic losses in countries such as Mozambique, Botswana, Malawi and South Africa. This event has been indirectly linked to climate change effects and one could say these effects are getting closer to home. Namibia will need to prepare to deal with and adapt to the effects of climate change. In 1992, Namibia presented its Green Plan to the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio. As a direct result of UNCED the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established. The Convention became effective in March of 1994 following ratification by the required number of governments. Namibia acceded to the Convention in 1995 and this has placed a number of legal obligations on the country. Among them is the preparation and presentation to the Convention of the Initial National Communication or INC on the status of climate change as well as corrective actions to reduce the predicted effects of climate change on Namibia in particular and the world in general. The Initial National Communication (INC) As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Namibia is obliged to prepare and present to the Convention an Initial National Communication on climate change within the country. The Convention is quite clear that climate change cannot and should not be left to the poor and developing nations. It therefore provides some level of financial resources to countries like Namibia to deal with climate change effects. During the INC preparation process two national workshops as well as informal consultations were held to give stakeholder a medium in which to review and make inputs into the INC. Representatives of the various stakeholder organizations and institutions actively participated in the preparation of this very important body of information. The available data and documentation on climate change and related matters were used in preparation of the INC which also included the first greenhouse gases (GHG) inventory for Namibia, an analysis of our vulnerability to the effects of climate change and recommendations on adaptation measures, capacity development, research, monitoring, public awareness and technology needs. The financial and technology needs required for adaptation and mitigation actions were identified in the INC and included a preliminary estimation of the financial resources required to implement the recommendations. The INC was completed in July 2002 and 500 copies were printed for public distribution. Both hard copes and an electronic version of the INC was deposited with the UNFCCC secretariat and oral presentation made at COP 8 in India in October 2002. The INC was also published on the DEA/MET website www.dea.met.gov.na and the UNFCCC website United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Other Actions To Date The Ministry of Environment and Tourism has been designated lead ministry in the co-ordination of climate change activities in Namibia. To date actions implemented under the national climate change program include the establishment of the Namibia Climate Change Committee (NCCC) in 2001. The NCCC is a multi-stakeholder committee to advise government on the policies and strategies it needs to adopt in preparing the country for the predicted and in some cases actual effects of climate change. Currently the committee consists of representatives from the government, NGOs and parastatals such as NamWater and NamPower, private sector representatives and tertiary academic institutions such as the University of Namibia and the Polytechnic of Namibia. Another notable output of the climate change program was the completion of a country study on climate change in Namibia in 1998. This study included an overview of the vulnerability of Namibia to climate change, an assessment of the source and sinks of green house gases in Namibia and a preliminary overview of the emissions scenarios and the corrective choices which the country faces. This information was used as the foundation upon which the Initial National Communication was built. Efforts are currently underway to develop national capacity to manage and implement our climate change program. A number of persons from the government and University of Namibia visited Center for Scientific and Industrial Research in South Africa to familiarise themselves with some of the processes involved climate change. Individuals within the various ministries are being prepared to participate in the program. Work on preparation of the public awareness products (a booklet and a poster) was completed during the first half of 2003. Nationwide distribution to schools, educational institutions, government offices, private sector agencies, public libraries etc., will be conducted following a public launch of these products. Namibia participated in and made significant contributions to the Conference of the Parties (COP) of the Climate Change Convention as well as the meetings of the Subsidiary Bodies of the Convention. Role Of Ministry Of Environment And Tourism The Ministry of Environment and Tourism (MET) and its Directorate of Environmental Affairs (DEA) have primary responsibility for coordination of implementation of the national program. This includes the preparation of the Initial National Communication. Support has been received from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) in Namibia to prepare the Initial National Communication and we are grateful for such support from our partner in development. The Namibia Climate Change Committee has assisted the Ministry of Environment and Tourism in carrying out this function. The Committee guided the production of the Initial National Communication and co-ordinated the climate change and Greenhouse Gas Inventory activities. The NCCC will continue to provide advice to the government on a future policy for climate change as well as the financial resources and capacity requirements that will be needed to implement a national climate change programme. Action has commenced to secure resources through the Convention mechanisms to establish a secretariat to provide support to the Ministry in the co-ordination of the climate change program in Namibia. Emphasis On Vulnerability And Adaptation Namibia is considered a minor producer of greenhouse gases but nevertheless will be affected by these gases with respect to climate in the future. Namibia has therefore, in its national interest, decided to place more emphasis on its vulnerability to the effects of climate change and the adaptation actions that it needs to take to prevent and/or reduce such effects. The 1998 Climate Change Country Study identified seven areas or sectors where Namibia is most vulnerable to climate change. These include water resources, marine resources, agriculture, biodiversity ecosystems, coastal zones and systems, health and energy. The Initial National Communication was able to further define the degrees of vulnerability of each of these sectors or areas. It further identified the level of resources required to pre-empt or adapt to potential negative effects. The information thus generated will be used to prepare strategies and action plans that can be easily fitted into the national development planning processes such as NDP 2 and Vision 2030. Namibia And The United Nations Framework Convention (UNFC) On Climate Change Namibia as a country is now beginning to take its rightful place in the international climate change arena under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Namibia has ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1993. Under the Protocol, industrialised countries will be required to reduce their green house gas emission by an average of five percent by 2012 compared to 1990 levels. Namibia and Africa as a group are part of the G77. Along with China, the G77 have developed a common negotiating position within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This position included the following elements: 1. Developing countries should not be burdened with binding emission reduction targets that would negatively affect their economic and social progress and resulting in the institutionalisation of the current global inequality. 2. The adaptation to anticipated climate change effects by the most vulnerable countries such as Namibia, as well as the technology transfer and financial resources required for such adaptation are priority issues for the Convention. They are not dependent on nor should they be linked to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. 3. Climate change adaptation funding should cover projects for forest conservation, rehabilitation of degraded land and combating desertification. Namibia has also decided that emphasis should be placed on building synergies between Climate Change Convention and other conventions such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and the Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD). Namibia is a party to these conventions. Through our programs, project proposals and our negotiating capacity, we will position ourselves to take advantage of and access the financial and other resources that are available to assist with our national development. Future Planned Actions The National Climate Change Program should be integrated into the national planning and development processes of government. Policy options to be examined and developed. A national climate change office to be established to coordinate the program on behalf of the government. A national strategy and action plan for climate change to be developed and become the basis for implementation of the program. Program Contacts For further information on climate change in Namibia, the National Climate Change Program can be contacted as follows: * Teofilus Nghitila: Chairman of the NCCC and Director Directorate of Environmental Affairs Ministry of Environment and Tourism Private Bag 13306, Windhoek, Namibia Email: Nghitila@dea.met.gov.na Tel: +264-61-249015, Fax: +264-61-240339 * Joseph McGann: Climate Change Program Coordinator Directorate of Environmental Affairs Ministry of Environment and Tourism Private Bag 13306, Windhoek, Namibia Email: joemcg@dea.met.gov.na Tel: +264-61-249015, Fax: +264-61-240339

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"Nothing is complete and thus nothing is exempt from criticism." - James Luther Adams:

Admin

The International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) published a report in November 2007 about how climate change will affect the contribution of Namibia’s natural resources to its economy. The report, written by Hannah Reid Linda Sahlén Jesper Stage James MacGregor concludes the following:

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Executive sumary Introduction Climate change is likely to exacerbate the dry conditions already experienced in Southern Africa. And when rainfall does come, it is likely to be in bursts of greater intensity leading to erosion and flood damage. But these predictions gain little policy traction in Southern African countries. Research in Namibia suggests that over 20 years, annual loses to the Namibian economy could be up to 6 per cent of GDP due to the impact that climate change will have on its natural resources alone. This will affect the poor most, with resulting constraints on employment opportunities and declining wages, especially for unskilled labour. Namibia must take steps to ensure that all its policies and activities are ‘climate proofed’ and that it has a strategy to deal with displaced farmers and farmworkers. The need to mainstream climate change into policies and planning is clear, and it is the responsibility of industrialised nations, who have largely created the problem of climate change, to help Namibia and other vulnerable countries cope with climate change impacts and plan for a climate constrained future. Vulnerability to climate change It is becoming widely acknowledged that poor nations will suffer most from the effects of climate change. This vulnerability stems partly from their geographic location in areas such as drought-prone sub-Saharan Africa or flood-prone Bangladesh. Their capacity to cope with climate change is also lower than that of wealthier nations because of limited financial resources, skills and technologies and high levels of poverty. And they are heavily reliant on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and fishing. Namibia is very dependent on natural resources: some estimate that up to 30 per cent of its GDP is reliant on the environment.1 Ironically, it is also these poor nations who have contributed least to the problem of climate change. Data covering 1950 to 2000 from the Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, developed by the Washington DC-based World Resources Institute, indicates that African countries contributed 4.6 per cent of cumulative global carbon emissions during that period.2 Today their share of emissions is even lower, amounting to just 3.5 per cent of the total.3 Namibia was in fact estimated to be a net sink for carbon dioxide in 1994 due to the large uptake of CO2 by trees. Namibia contributed less than 0.05 per cent to global CO2 equivalent emissions in 1994, even when this carbon sink is excluded from calculations.4 Increasingly, countries are recognising the need to assess the likely impact of climate change on their desired development pathways, and take steps to ensure all policies and activities are ‘climate-proofed’. While climate change clearly must be mainstreamed into policies and planning, knowing how this will happen is less clear. 1 Lange, G-M. (2003) National Wealth, Natural Capital and Sustainable Development in Namibia. DEA research discussion paper 56 Ministry of Environment and Tourism. Windhoek, Namibia.2 World Resources Institute (2006). Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 3.0. WRI, Washington DC. 3 MacGregor, J. (2006) Ecological Space and a Low-carbon Future: Crafting space for equitable economic development in Africa. Fresh Insights no. 8, DFID/IIED/NRI.4 Midgley, G. et al. (2005) Assessment of Potential Climate Change Impacts on Namibia’s Floristic Diversity, Ecosystem Structure and Function. South African National Botanical Institute, Cape Town. The forecast for Namibia Temperatures in Namibia have been increasing at three times the global mean temperature increases reported for the 20th century. The temperature rise predicted for 2100 ranges from 2 to 6°C. Particularly in the central regions, lower rainfall is expected, while overall rainfall is projected to become even more variable than it is now. Even if rainfall changes little from today’s levels, rises in temperature will boost evaporation rates, leading to severe water shortages. Poor rural pastoralist and dryland populations will be affected most. The frequency and intensity of extreme events such as droughts are likely to increase. There may be less plant cover and productivity on grassland and savanna in response to relatively scant rainfall and more evaporation. Grassy savanna may also become less dominant as desertification occurs in some areas, and shrubs and trees benefit from higher levels of CO2 in others. Impacts on the marine environment are uncertain, but scenarios range from dramatic ecosystem responses that reduce their overall productivity to more intense coastal upwelling - the wind-driven movement of cooler, nutrient-rich water to the ocean surface - which would increase productivity. Quantifying the impacts Namibia’s advanced Natural Resource Accounts (NRA) helps to evaluate the contribution of the environment to national wealth by developing so-called ‘satellite’ accounts for natural assets such as fish, forests, wildlife, water and minerals. Data from the NRA can be fed into the conventional national economic accounts. This capability potentially allows for sound sustainable development planning that includes natural resources as well as man-made or owned assets - a clear advantage for policymakers in economies such as Namibia’s, which is so dependent on natural resources. In NRA, natural assets are valued in two ways. First, the values of the total natural resource stocks are measured. These are treated as capital assets in the stock or asset account. Second, their annual contribution to national income in terms of direct use values is measured in the production or flow account. Changes in the capital stock from year to year are also reflected in the national income. Data from the NRA was fed into a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which uses actual economic data to determine how economies respond to policy or other changes. This revealed that under a best-case scenario, agricultural impacts would be partly offset by improved water distribution, there would be no impact on fisheries and the overall GDP would fall by only about 1 per cent. Under a worst-case scenario, large-scale shifts in climate zones would reduce agricultural and fishing outputs, and the overall GDP would fall by almost 6 per cent over 20 years. However, this estimate constitutes only a fraction of possible climate change impacts because it considers only two economic sectors - agriculture and fisheries - and ignores impacts such as those on health, infrastructure and energy that relate less to natural resources and that other country studies have shown to be significant. Namibian natural resource experts have further worked to quantify, as much as possible, the economic impacts of climate change on Namibia’s natural resource base. Estimates of how climate change will affect various sectors, and subsequent translation into economic impacts, can only be best guesses. Expert estimates suggest, however, that over 20 years, annual loses to the Namibian economy could be between 1 and 6 per cent of GDP - that is, between £35 million and £100 million - if no action is taken to adapt to climate change. Who will be hit hardest? Combining data from the NRA with Namibia’s Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) provides the chance to see who will be hit hardest by the impacts of climate change on the environment. The SAM is a database that provides information on activities in different economic sectors and helps identify the poverty status of different groups. Evidence from low-income countries around the world suggests that the people likely to be most affected by climate change are the poorest and most vulnerable. And in Namibia, results show that climate change impacts will hit the poor hardest, with employment opportunities constrained and a substantial decline in wages, especially for unskilled labour. Even under the best-case scenarios generated by the CGE model, subsistence farming will fall sharply. In the worst-case scenario for agriculture, labour intensive livestock farming is hit hard, and while high-value irrigated crop production could thrive, employment creation in this area would be minimal. Thus, even under the best-case scenario, a quarter of the population will need to find new livelihoods. Displaced rural populations are likely to move to cities, which could cause incomes for unskilled labour to fall by 12 to 24 per cent in order to absorb the new workers. Income distribution in Namibia is already one of the most uneven in the world and this inequality is likely to increase. What this will do to social cohesion, if no counteracting policies are put in place, can only be imagined.

juikk

sjoe, der u hav de ansa, as from my side, I sense winter rain, is d@ even normal in de Nam?

Silver Surfer

Wonderful info! Thanks and so quick, too.

Mie1

Namibia: Climate Change to Strongly Impact Agriculture

Brigitte Weidlich14 July 2009

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RAINY seasons in Namibia will most likely become shorter but more intense, participants to a congress of the Agricultural Scientific Society of Namibia (Agrisson) were told. The theme of the 13th congress was 'Climate change and food security challenges in sub-Saharan Africa - current agricultural innovations' and was held at Oshakati recently. Marina Coetzee of the Ministry of Agriculture spoke on climate change and agriculture in Namibia and pointed out the threats of climate change to Namibian agriculture and possible solutions to adapt to these threats. According to most of the scenarios published so far, the temperature in Namibia will increase by 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius while rainfall intensity will probably increase as well. "The duration of the rainy season will shrink so that rainfall events will become more intense, leading to more damage and soil erosion. Alarmingly, invader bush will probably benefit from the fertilising effect of increased atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (Co2) concentrations," Coetzee told the 70 participants. This emphasised the need to manage the country's natural rangelands more sustainably. Professor Jack Elliot and Dr Michelle Glenn of Texas A&M University proposed partnerships with Namibian organisations to build linkages between research, teaching and outreach to provide new entrepreneurial strategies for farmers based on sustainable natural product development. "The aim is to establish a centre of excellence in agricultural value chain education. With Agrisson they hope to co-host the 2011 conference of the Association for International Agricultural and Extension Education (AIAEE) in Windhoek, which is planned for July 2011 and we resolved to collaborate where able and appropriate," said Dr Axel Rothauge, Chairman of Agrisson. In total 28, presentations were given on a wide variety of topics falling under categories of crop science, livestock and rangeland management, and natural resources management. Extended abstracts of these presentations on CD were given to each of the Congress participants and are available from the Editor Ibo Zimmermann (061-2072461), at N$50. Agrisson prizes were awarded to agriculture students of Ogongo, Neudamm, Unam and the Polytechnic for their good performance and exemplary attitude. These students had been invited to Oshakati to participate in the Congress and their expenses were funded by Nored. Agriculture Minister John Mutorwa, who opened the congress, called on scientists to solve challenges facing all forms of life from threats such as climate change, through research. Congress participants visited a nearby farm for a demonstration, by Gerhard Baufeld of Leather Connection, of the animal-drawn mahangu planter he designed. This planter had jointly won the design prize recently awarded by the Namibia Agronomic Board, because it featured a specially and precision-engineered planting drum mechanism that can expel sticky mahangu seed without damaging it and reducing its germination success. Delegates further visited the Etunda near Ruacana, where about 600 hectares are under irrigation. Half the total area is commercially cropped by the contractor and the other half is farmed by 86 smallholders, who are serviced by the contractor. Climatic conditions favour a long harvesting season and an early start to the season, which gives Etunda a competitive advantage. Under the revised Green Scheme, greater control would be exercised over the farming carried out by the project's small-scale farmers to ensure their viability. Agrisson also celebrated its 21st anniversary during the congress.

allAfrica.com: Namibia: Climate Change to Strongly Impact Agriculture (Page 1 of 1)